BMBI Report - November 2024

Merchant’s November value sales fall -4.6%, as prices fall -3.4%

The latest Builders Merchant Building Index (BMBI) report, published in January, shows builders’ merchants’ value sales in November were down -4.6% compared to the same month in 2023. Volume sales slipped -1.3% and prices were also down -3.4%. With one less trading day this year, like-for-like value sales, which take trading day differences into account, were flat (-0.1%).

Year-on-year, just one category sold more – Tools (+3.5%). Renewables & Water Saving (-15.1%) was the weakest category.

Value sales in November were -10.0% lower than the previous month. Volume sales fell -11.2% compared to October, while prices edged up +1.3%. All twelve categories sold less, but half did better than Total Merchants: Kitchens & Bathrooms (-2.6%), Plumbing Heating & Electrical (-7.0%), Workwear & Safetywear (-7.7%), Miscellaneous (-8.2%), Tools (-9.6%) and Timber & Joinery Products (-9.9%). Renewables & Water Saving (-17.1%) declined the most. With two less trading days this month, like-for-like value sales were down -1.4%.

In the 12-month period December 2023 to November 2024, total value sales were down -4.7% compared to the same period the year before (December 2022 to November 2023). Volume sales were -5.3% lower and prices were up +0.7%. The two largest categories - Heavy Building Materials (-6.3%) and Timber & Joinery Products (-7.0%) - declined more than Total Merchants. The strongest performing categories were Workwear & Safetywear (+10.9%), Tools (+6.1%) and Decorating (+2.1%). With two more trading days in the most recent 12-month period, like-for-like value sales were -5.5% lower.

Total value sales from January to November were down -4.5% compared to the first eleven months of 2023.

Mike Rigby, Managing Director of MRA Research which produces the BMBI report says: “As 2024 closed, there was relief that the latest ONS data for November’s construction output wasn’t worse - an overall +0.4% increase in volume, rather than a decrease. However, this modest growth was mainly driven by the commercial sector, as both private new housing (-1.2%) and private housing repair and maintenance (-0.2%) contracted.

“It's not hard to see why housebuilding and residential RMI are weak. GfK’s Consumer Confidence Index increased by a single point in December to -17, and while there were two-point increases to sentiment in personal finances (in the last and next 12 months), expectations for the economy remain depressed.

“GfK’s findings were echoed by KPMG UK’s Consumer Pulse survey, which found that four in ten consumers thought the economy was getting worse, and a third said they were ‘managing’ their personal finances but having to budget discretionary spending. Looking ahead to 2025 though, 21% said they were planning to spend money on minor home improvements, 14% were planning to spend on major home improvements, and 7% were planning to move home.

“But business confidence was battered by the Budget with the Government talking growth while making it harder to grow. And now, major economies have been put on hold while countries, businesses and homeowners wait to see how President Trump’s words translate into action. How will the US government’s actions affect them and their projects? Everyone’s holding their breath!”

Set up and run by MRA Research, the BMBI – a brand of the Builders Merchants Federation - is a monthly index of builders’ merchant sales, and the most reliable, up-to-date measure of Repair, Maintenance, and Improvement (RMI) activity in the UK. The index is based on actual sales from GfK’s Builders’ Merchant Point of Sale Tracking Data, which captures value sales out to builders from generalist builders’ merchants, accounting for 88% of total sales from builders’ merchants throughout Great Britain. An in-depth review, which includes commentary by sector experts, is provided each quarter.

November’s BMBI report is available to download at www.bmbi.co.uk.